Macro background Stock Market Analysis

 Of: the stock market's ups and downs Luoshan Jiang
must be justified, the most important reason is that the macro background of the reasons the stock market. Many of the stock market important to consider the macro context of a macroeconomic situation and characteristics, government stock policy orientation and intensity of major political, economic and social events. a variety of macro background factors are intertwined, play a role in the stock market run, sometimes briefly stimulate the stock market, and sometimes a longer period of operation of the stock market play a role. the same To stimulate the stock market rose macro background, but different times, on the stock plate, structural changes of the situation is different. Therefore, neither stock market analysis from the macro background of castles in the air by type of purely technical approach can not unbookish copying of macro background explain the stock market.
stock market is not without trees
Overall, the stock market is a subsystem of the economic system, the direction of the stock market is running in the direction the economy is closely related to running, which is often said The stock market is a barometer of the economy. Analysis of the direction of the stock market must be combined with the direction for economic operation.
run the stock market greatly influenced by policy. The Government's policy towards the different markets, different effect on the stock market run support economic development policy and development policy will stimulate the stock market rising stock market and inhibit economic development policy and the policy would inhibit the development of stock markets to gradually decline. Therefore, to analyze the direction of the stock market can not do without the government's economic policy and the stock market policy analysis.
Stock Market also with the political, economic and even a variety of interrelated social events, a number of major political, economic or social events can trigger dramatic changes in the stock market. Analysis of the direction of the stock market can not be divorced from a variety of events role. the stock market is one of many stock market investors to participate in the capital markets, the stock market ups and downs with all the vital interests of the investors stake. investor interest groups to form a stock market gains and losses will be different interest groups, reflect, so investors interest groups How the pros and cons, background analysis is an important aspect of the stock market.
macroeconomic direction is the direction of the stock market is based on the macroeconomic situation
Chinese stock market is running on the role, not a direct one on one to affect the the operation of the stock market, to borrow a phrase from the world monetary relations, the relationship is not close watch on their relationship. not so much China's macro-economic role in the stock market, as it is in practice only the shadow of China's macroeconomic work in the stock market . China's stock market operation and the role of macroeconomic we think is: the direction of China's macro economy is based on the direction of the stock market, but China's stock market is just staring at the shadow of China's macro economy is running the operation.
economic operation under the direction of the stock market in the study, focusing on economic performance need to look at the three major elements: First, is the national economy was growing trend or was gradually decreased. the national economy to positive growth trend of the stock market in a bull market accordingly; negative growth in the national economy, the stock market appropriate in a bear market phase. Second, the state investment policy, interest rate policy, economic policy, the policy orientation in order to stimulate economic development, based on the rising stock market; the other hand the basis of stock market decline. Third is to investigate the central bank's monetary policy, monetary easing, the market became active water; monetary tightening, the stock market into a river without water. because in China, which industry growth are inseparable from the support of bank funds. the real estate industry growth, the stock market trend for the better, because banks inflow of funds from multiple channels.
Stock Market based on economic operation, but the stock market as a barometer of the economy, it is not a passive reflection of economic operation, but investors analyze and judge, the early indicator of future economic operation. This in turn makes the stock market with the elusive, full of charm variables. on economic performance and stock market run empirical analysis can be concluded that: long-term trends in economic growth and income convergence of the stock market; in the short term , the stock market to reflect the uneven economic growth in the way. a period of over-exploitation of the stock market to future economic growth brought about by investment income, which may be the best year of economic growth, the stock market down by over-exploitation in the early fall stage. stock market returns do not reflect the balance of economic growth to the stock market is more uncertainty, the stock market this charming gift to .2002 to 2003, China's economy showed a good momentum of development in the form, but a downward trend of the stock market, stock market and economic growth in the form the departure from the state. This is mainly is mainly due to adjustment of the stock market from 1996 to June 2001 need to be adjusted speculative philosophy, the Chinese stock market system defects also need to gradually amended their overestimated the value of the stock need to return. is because the current economic system in a normal state, the economy in a stable period, the economic situation is relatively optimistic, although the Chinese stock market has led to weak and can not collapse, although the chaos and disorder Buzhi Yu. Here is the full performance of the stock market out of the macroeconomic cornerstone.
policy can really do about the direction of the stock market
Overall, a single policy can not determine stock market movements, but consistent with economic policy development, stock market behavior conform to the policy coherence tremendous impact on the stock market. So the stock market run-time analysis, to analyze the policy context. policy background to the analysis of the stock market, the first analysis is to determine when the stock market, what stock market is judged to be the policy context. Since 1990, the stock market policy background, there are several major phases: 1990 to May 1993, the policy background to the stock market as a new phenomenon in the Chinese economy to trial in May .1993 July 1997, the policy background to suppress the development of the stock market, so as to avoid destroying the stock market crisis of the state's implementation of the austerity .1997 July to June 2000, the stock market during the policy context is to support development to support national economic development, stock market .2001 June 2003 In December, the policy background of this stage is to regulate the securities market, to the international, standardized, market-oriented to promote the Chinese stock market, the Government's regulatory policies are quite extreme .2004 began, the stock market policy into recognition of Chinese characteristics, moderate to regulate the stock market and the protection of the stock market running smoothly, and promote reform, opening up the stock market and steady development. the State Council issued 9 views, so that the Government's policy to support the development of systematic markets. stock market policy background is different from movement on the stock market to the background atmosphere also different, to institutional investors left the operating room is different, the psychological impact on investors are also different. Therefore, the policy context and guidance, sometimes to guide the stock market, and sometimes seize control of the executive power of the stock market, and sometimes let the market forces play their role.
Second, investors need to do qualitative analysis of government policies. investors to a very good grasp of policy, not blindly, without analysis of the acceptance policy, and should study the nature of the policy, the policy itself is right or wrong, policy implementation is valid. to discuss, examine government's stock market policy on the stock market's role, first of all to discuss, examine Government to develop the stock market a basis for policy. As the Stock Market subject to economic performance, the stock market movement direction with the economic operation of the direction of positive relationship as the country's stock market policy must be subordinated to national economic policy is part of national economic policy, so what types of economic policies, accompanied by the development policy of what the stock market. So under normal circumstances the stock market and economic policies is the same. the stock market operation and a positive correlation between economic performance, so the stock market run of the main policy and the stock market is the same. One part of the Government's inconsistent with the economy and stock market run of the policy, not by the market itself denied that the Government self corrected these policies in 1993, when allowed to bank funds into the stock market in 1995, close bond futures and the state has adopted the policy of economic austerity policies are consistent, so the effective .2001 June, the introduction of state-owned shares of and economic development policy is, inconsistent with the state enterprise reform, the final policy is ineffective, by the government to correct. In addition, effective policies must also be consistent with operation of the market forces. When the market rose to intermediate run in the stock market top of the chips out profit eager to put any good policy, not lead to rising stock market, but to guide the ending; the most obvious example is the 6.24 in 2002 prices, institutions of deep cover, eager to get out of trouble, June 24 introduced to stop the implementation of the policy state-owned shares, for not the stock market to rise, but a rebound.
political, economic and social events run effect on the stock market
political, economic, and social events will have an important impact on the stock market is that people are aware of a common-sense problem. whenever there is this type of event, the stock market investors are very sensitive, the market performance is extremely dynamic noise. the stock market rise, investors appear due to positive investor enthusiasm of events to promote the stock market hot; stock prices, the bad events, investors fear, have flesh out, the stock market a fuzzy flesh and blood. If the stock market in early November 2003 the downturn, led by the SASAC issued state-owned shares is conditional statements, the day the stock market plummeted again, after A few days a large number of investors in the 1307-1360 low point of selling the stock. shows how people are sensitive to major events and attention.
investor attention on important events, but no major events on the stock market impact of the law in-depth study and, therefore, can not really adjust properly in accordance with laws of investment behavior, or even reverse, leading to the failure of investment. through the historical understanding of Chinese and foreign stock markets, we find that political, economic, and social events are often run with the stock market important turning point in a high degree of agreement. the stock market in the high technology need to be adjusted, often accompanied by a significant negative nature of the incident. The most telling case is the international terrorists bombed the World Trade Center on the long-term bull market in U.S. stocks ended the case. U.S. stocks since the 20th century, the early 90s, to 2000 on the go vertices, since February 2000 to August 2001, has been above the 10,000 point high consolidation, when the U.S. economy has shown the characteristics of slower growth , the stock market will enter a longer adjustment period and a larger level gradually clear trend, but the U.S. stock market is not falling off the top of 10000 .2001 September 11, terrorists bombed the World Trade Center's big social event, U.S. stocks opened in the suspension a few weeks, despite U.S. government efforts to rescue the market, the stock market still fell below the million points in one fell swoop high neckline, thus confirming the bull market years of the end of the U.S. stock market into a major new level of operational phase of adjustment. coincidence , the end of upward trend in China's stock market several times a period of adjustment is also accompanied by the occurrence of major events June .1997 a hot Chinese stock market, the Government announced an increase in amount of 300 billion new shares issued to the rally ended; June 1998, the Shanghai stock market from the 1043 points to 1420 points on the red, the government announced to discuss the , rapid decline in the stock market.
concern the impact of events on the stock market, with particular emphasis on market rumors and rumors of investors deceptive. The stock market is a place where most rumors and hearsay. beware if investors will be gullible. < br> 1999 年 post-519 market, quickly pulled up the deep institutional development, its share price from 13 yuan to 28 yuan, when rumors of deep market development should be split, causing many investors chase, and finally nothing happened, the is making high escape occurred, high hedged investors.
understanding of the political, economic, and social events run influence on the stock market, investors will be able to take the initiative in driving this law. running in the stock market highs and lows of major events can be extremely concerned about making full use of.
improper stock market analysis to see nerds
stock market out of the macro background of China's stock market analysis requires the use of dialectics, the living soul, all from the reality of China's stock market, seeking truth from facts .
the actual situation of China's stock market is what? mainly has the following features:
First, the Chinese stock market is only a ten year history of the young market is not regulated by the gradually emerging markets over the more mature markets. This feature shows that the existing Chinese stock market have seen a lot of people can not immediately solve the problem must be solved step by step with the development of the stock market.
Second, China is the main state-owned economy to a socialist country, listed companies The main state-owned companies, China's stock market as the capital market, its main function is to raise funds for the state-owned listed companies and economic development. China's stock market for the financing of state-owned listed companies is the last word, not a single reason can be higher than the truth.
Third, not simply in isolation methods using fundamental and technical analysis of stock market run of .2001 shares of 11 yuan on average more than 60 times the average price-earnings ratio, the average is about 5 times book value. even the best technology trends are false. analysis of the stock market have a number of theoretical methods, but even the best are no match for the theory of reality. If the market price reduction of state shares, state-owned shareholders holding low-cost, high cost of ownership of shares outstanding, this is right re-sounding, are not considered good policy. Another example is to buy stocks is to buy a listed company, according to quality, asset poor, even the best stock prices, the stock price is too high risks. Also, analysis of wave movements, K line graphics, but all the most real, the current cost of the majority of investors holding costs than other investors, high or low is the most important factor. of the stock market do not understand time, copy theory, might as well do this analysis. < br> Fourth, the Chinese stock market will eventually adjust to reform the irrational stock market system, the stock market function better and achieve equality of all shareholders.